The top 10 wireless trends for 2008
Posted by thescrappyemailmarketer on January 3, 2008
***This Article was from CNN Money/Fortune and the original post can be found here*** ***It was written by Michal Lev-Ram***
A lot happened in wireless this past year, from the debut of the iPhone to Verizon Wireless’ move to open its network. But 2008 promises to be just as eventful, starting with the Federal Communication Commission’s spectrum auction in January. Here’s a look at the 10 most significant events and trends in the coming year.
1. Wireless networks will remain the domain of wireless operators: There’s been talk that the upcoming 700-MHz spectrum auction could present an opportunity for a new carrier to emerge, given that companies like Google (GOOG) and even oil giant Chevron (CVX) have registered to bid. But most analysts agree it’s unlikely anyone but the current big mobile operators will win the showdown. “AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless (VZ) will be the most aggressive bidders,” says Forrester Research analyst Charles Golvin. But regardless of who wins, the wireless world will change given an FCC requirement that the 700-MHz spectrum be open to any device.
2. The first Android phones hit the market: Taiwanese phonemaker HTC has said it expects to launch the first cell phone based on Google’s Android mobile platform by midyear, and other phonemakers are expected to follow. (Android is a wireless operating standard that aims to make the mobile data experience more Internet-like.)
3. Cameraphones will get even fancier: Have you checked out Nokia’s (NOK) N95 - a picture-taking machine that comes with a five-megapixel camera and still fits in your pocket? That’s the future of multimedia phones. “For the first time, in 2007 cameraphones became the majority,” says Mark Donovan, an analyst with research firm M:Metrics. “In 2008 we’ll see the technology continue to improve.” In the United States, 61 percent of phones already have built-in cameras, and there’s a growing range of uses for them. In addition to uploading and sharing photos directly over cellular networks, people will be able to take pictures of ads to get coupons sent to them via SMS or get product information by taking a shot of a barcode.
4. Mobile ads will come to a cell phone screen near you: Sure, estimates of mobile advertising revenues have often turned out to be overblown, but that doesn’t mean the industry isn’t making headway. In 2007, many of the big players - Google, Yahoo (YHOO) and Microsoft (MSFT) - made mobile ad-related acquisitions. Expect to see the fruits of that shopping spree start to appear later in 2008. It will be a while before subscription-based models lose ground to ad-based ones, much like what happened on the Internet, but the wireless industry is slowly opening up to ads.
5. WiMax will become available: This is the year Sprint (S) will launch its Xohm mobile broadband service in select markets like Chicago, Baltimore and Washington, D.C. By end of 2008, Sprint expects to reach 100 million customers with its new ultra-fast mobile data service. While Nokia’s Internet tablet will be one of the first compatible devices available on Sprint’s new network, analysts don’t expect to see affordable WiMax-enabled phones anytime soon.
6. Openness will continue to dominate the wireless lexicon: You can thank Google for this one - ever since the Internet search giant began lobbying the FCC to open up the 700-MHz spectrum, “open” has become the latest buzzword in the cellular world. At first the big mobile operators tried to fight it, but once they realized they couldn’t beat Google they joined in. Look for holdout AT&T to become more open to the possibilities of open in 2008.
7. Nokia will become a major mobile software player: With its new chief technology officer based in the Silicon Valley, a reorganization that will make software and services one of the company’s main business groups and the upcoming launch of its Ovi web portal, expect the Finnish phonemaker to become much more than a hardware player in 2008. The company’s buying streak (it’s already snapped up startups like photo-sharing service Twango and digital mapmaker Navteq) is likely to continue.
8. Getting lost will get harder: What, you don’t have a GPS-enabled phone? Don’t worry, you will soon. That’s because the FCC’s “Enhanced 911″ rules is slowly forcing U.S. carriers to make their handsets GPS-capable. That in turn will drive more and more location-based services (think social networking and advertising) in 2008.
9. More touchscreens: The iPhone wasn’t the only touchy-feely phone to come out in 2007. There was also the HTC Touch and Verizon’s Voyager and Venus devices, which launched in time for the holiday season. But expect to see even more all-touch devices in 2008. According to ABI Research, over 100 million handsets with touchscreens will be shipped in the new year By 2012, that number is expected to reach 500 million.
10. Silicon Valley will become a wireless industry hot spot: The Valley is home to iPhone-maker Apple (AAPL), Android creator Google, Nokia’s new CTO and countless mobile startups. With the increasing focus on software and services - not just phone manufacturing - Silicon Valley will become even more prominent on the wireless map.
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January 3, 2008 at 11:28 am
Fantastic blog and loads of great info here to consider!
January 3, 2008 at 11:30 am
thanks for your kind words….and for stopping by the blog. cheers from cold cold cold chicago.
January 6, 2008 at 11:01 pm
WiMAX as the Top Wireless Trend for 2008: Ten reasons why it should be so!
Fortune has named WiMAX as the top ten wireless trend for 2008.The naming of WiMAX as the top wireless trend for 2008 has not come as a surprise to industry watchers. A number of developments, happening in their own areas are now coming together to deliver the promise of a completely new mobile wireless experience, the first in over a decade. There are no less than ten reasons, which we foresee today, which are likely to make this prediction ring true.
Firstly, the price of CPEs based on bill of material costs has for the first time forecast to be below $100 (e.g. by Wavesat®). This is even without any of the large scale introductions of WiMAX networks, and even with relatively low CPE volumes in existence today. With volume the prices are set to nosedive even further.
Second, the year 2008 is slated to be one, where large scale introductions of WiMAX networks will happen. The launch of XOHM by Sprint Nextel and WiMAX from Clearwire® will propel the availability of WiMAX to over 100 million of customers before the year is out. This follows over 200 trials and successful introductions in a number of countries.
Third, WiMAX technologies have now matured with the WIMAX forum certifying Wave 2 compatible mobile WiMAX devices. Chipsets are available e.g. from Beceem or Runcom amongst many others which provide immediate implementation of a variety of customer premises equipment(CPEs).
Fourth, the governments worldwide have now much higher awareness of the power of mobility as well WiMAX as an enabler of rural and urban connectivities and its potential in delivering high speed applications. With many of the countries adding 8-10 million users a month for mobile services, universal connectivity is squarely in focus. This is implying a better focus on regulatory issues to spur WiMAX networks.
Fifthly there is a greater availability of CPEs ranging from PC cards, USB modems, standalone gaming devices and internet tablets. Hence operators who do not possess wireline assets are now willing to take a plunge with the new technologies.
Sixth, there is now much better clarity on the use of spectrum for WIMAX and mobile WiMAX. With the WRC 2007 adopting the OFDMA-TDD as one of the approved air interfaces under IMT-2000 as well as clearly defining the WiMAX spectrum bands, many of the pending allocations can be quickly resolved.
Seventh, the success of programs such as M-Taiwan and Eratech® Argentina amongst many others have demonstrated that e-governance and universal connectivity are key drivers of global competitiveness. Regulators globally are seeking expeditious implementations of WiMAX networks, both through spectrum auctions as well as licensing etc.
Eighth, most of the legacy wireline and wireless networks based on TDM circuit switched architecture are nearing end of life and the new generation networks( NGNs) are invariably being implemented based on IP. WiMAX is one of the key wireless technologies which are based on completely open architectures, use of IETF protocols and use of IPv6. The use of WiMAX is seen not only as a migration to open IP core networks with support for mobility but also migration to IPv6 which is inevitable with growing base of mobile devices and mandates for such migration in many countries.
Ninth, the WiMAX technology, unlike its predecessor the WiFi, provides a number of quality of service classes, which can be defined for each connection and each application running over these connections. Thus it can support VoIP for rural telephony as easily as streaming video with their own QoS classes. It is now being seen as a key technology to enable true broadband capable of supporting a rich multimedia messaging and calling environments. Whether it is pictures with an 8Mp camera or an 80GB iPOD®, WiMAX can keep these wireless. Many applications are now ready to step out of the limited connectivity and the row resolutions enabled by today’s mobile networks.
Tenth and finally, all this would be in vain, were it not for some “big-bang” introductions of the technology, which immediately provide a critical mass for prices to come down sufficiently for even more users to subscribe to the service, thus creating a chain reaction.
With the impending launches in a number of countries, as well as launch of Sprint Nextel XOHM and Clearwire® services in USA, the stage is now fully set for just such a phenomenon.
Just as WiFi changed the landscape in the use of computers and mobile devices in just a couple of years, get set to witness the same for WiMAX this year. The drama is expected to unfold with veterans on the stage with the likes of Intel, Samsung, Motorola and Sprint being a part of the star cast and many years of rehearsing behind them. The drama will be played out on the world theatre, with virtually every country donning its colors and logo.